PALL Year-to-Date Performance: How High Can It Go?

Palladium (PALL) is a rare precious metal that plays a unique role in the global market. Unlike GOLD or silver, much of its demand comes from industrial use—particularly in catalytic converters for vehicles—making it sensitive to both economic cycles and supply trends. This dual role as an industrial and investment asset gives PALL distinctive volatility and upside potential. In 2025 alone, PALL gained 74% in value, outperforming the SPX by 49%.

Recently, PALL has shown sharp impulsive pumps followed by consolidation phases, a pattern also observed in broader markets like the Hang Seng Index (HSI). Key resistance levels lie ahead and if broken, could open up the path to 200–250 USD potentially. Relative to GOLD and the S&P 500, PALL appears bullish, though near-term resistance could test the trend.

This article will break down the technical signals, compare PALL with other markets, and explore the scenarios that could define its near-term trajectory.

PALL Technical Analysis

This chart shows that palladium (PALL) recently experienced sharp upward price movements (impulsive pumps) followed by periods of sideways trading or minor pullbacks (consolidation). This pattern often indicates that the market is absorbing gains before deciding its next directional move.

Here, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) exhibits a comparable pattern of rapid price surges followed by consolidation. This could potentially be a blueprint for the future path PALL might take though such comparisons eventually diverge and this has to be taken into account when comparing different assets with each other. Such a comparison could be helpful to reason about the potential future for PALL and where it might face other resistance levels.

This chart compares PALL’s performance relative to GOLD. It shows that while palladium is outperforming, there are still key resistance levels it must overcome. Breaking these could result in a significant relative gain—estimated at around 32% against GOLD. This is a relative measure and as such it depends on the move GOLD will take. If GOLD drops then this chart indicates that PALL will drop less and thus, the ratio will still go up. On the other hand, if GOLD appreciates in value, then PALL will go higher. This relative comparison is helpful to see how PALL might behave in the future if it does touch the upper resistance level.

Here, PALL is compared with the S&P 500 (SPX). The chart shows a bullish trend for palladium relative to the index, but it also signals that near-term resistance could slow or reverse this momentum if not breached. From the current levels, this indicates an appreciation of 30 to 44% against the SPX. Since this is a relative measure, it depends on the price action of the SPX as well. If the SPX drops, but PALL goes higher, then also this resistance area can be reached very quickly with PALL only putting in modest gains. The same reasoning applies here as with the relative comparison to GOLD above.

On the monthly RSI, PALL still has more room to go until it faces the downward channel. The RSI is not yet in overbought territory, indicating that there is still potential for upward momentum before the market reaches levels where a pullback is more likely. PALL may have room to continue its bullish trend over the coming months, though once it reaches the downward channel, it could face resistance for a prolonged period of time.

This chart shows PALL’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a weekly timeframe. The RSI has reached a level that previously acted as resistance, suggesting that the recent upward momentum may slow down. Historically, hitting this level often leads to a period of consolidation or sideways price movement before the next significant move.

This projection indicates that, based on current technical momentum and support/resistance levels, PALL has the potential to reach the $200–$250 range in the short term. It highlights a bullish scenario if current trends hold which also the Fibonacci retracement implies as it would be in between the 0.618 and 0.786 level. While this paints a bullish picture, it is not guaranteed to reach it right away and could face resistance earlier or not reach these levels at all.

Pitfalls

Keep in mind that this is just a dubious speculation that may or may not occur. PALL might be more bullish than the analysis of the article or more bearish depending on how market sentiment evolves in the future. Indicators do not tell the future with absolute certainty. They are useful to reason about the future, and it is important to balance both bullish and bearish scenarios to avoid bias as best as possible. Lastly, all indicators are prone to failure every now and then. They tend to work well for a while, but eventually, some indicators fail, while others do not. As more data comes in, the analysis will evolve to incorporate new moves, invalidate a previous hypothesis or gain evidence for a previous idea.

Conclusion

PALL has shown incredible gains in 2025 outpacing the SPX. Whether it will continue to do so remains to be seen. Especially now, it is not clear at what point PALL will break out and how much longer the trend will continue. In the past, PALL has spent longer times accumulating around previous breakout levels. If PALL breaks out earlier than usual, then the accumulation period will be shorter, and it could test prior resistance earlier as well and potentially break out or be rejected. Metals have been in a bull market for some time, and at one point, a prolonged period of consolidation will be in order.