GOLD vs SPX: How long can the rally go on?

GOLD’s long-term relationship to the SPX reveals a remarkably persistent structure: a downward channel in relative terms that has remained intact since 1929. This channel frames GOLD’s secular underperformance versus equities, punctuated by brief but powerful counter-trend phases. From a technical perspective, the lower boundary and former breakdown levels of this channel now serve as reference points for projecting where the current relative advance could ultimately exhaust, with horizontal resistance suggesting a potential topping process into the early 2030s.

Historically, GOLD bull markets have unfolded over roughly 12–13 year cycles, and the present advance fits well within that temporal framework. Prior episodes—most notably the late 1970s to early 1980s—demonstrate that GOLD can temporarily break above its long-term relative channel and generate outsized gains before reverting back toward the broader trend. This article explores whether the current cycle is setting up a similar, time-limited breakout, and how long-term channel geometry and cycle duration could converge to signal a major inflection point for GOLD in the coming decade.

GOLD vs SPX Technical Analysis

GOLD’s performance relative to the SPX has been constrained by a broad downward channel for nearly a century, reflecting the long-term dominance of productive assets over monetary hedges during periods of growth and financial innovation. This channel (GOLD/SPX) provides the structural basis against which all major GOLD bull markets will be evaluated.

Projecting forward from the historical breakdown level of this channel, a horizontal resistance zone emerges in the early 2030s. From a technical standpoint, this area could act as resistance in the short-term. It could either signal the top being on, or a temporary prolonged consolidation before a potential move higher similar to what happened at the end of the 70s and early 80s. Note that this line is drawn on the monthly timeframe and extends far out in the future. As such, depending on how precisely the line is drawn, the potential timeframe of the line being hit is shifted by a few months or years. Currently, the line crosses the downward channel at the beginning of the 2030s.

The late-1970s bull market demonstrates that GOLD can temporarily escape its long-term relative downtrend, delivering explosive gains before reverting back into the broader channel. That episode saw GOLD appreciate roughly 200%, indicating that a similar breakout could also have a strong move higher, though it is not guaranteed that it will or that it will happen at all.

Previous bull markets in GOLD have typically lasted between 12 and 13 years, suggesting that the current bull market might last for a similar period of time. When aligned with the start of the current cycle, this duration window places the next major inflection point in the early-to-mid 2030s.

When drawing a similar time window to the ones above starting at the beginning of 2022, the bull market cycle could potentially extend until the mid-2030s. While it is not clear which path GOLD will take or how long the cycle will actually last, the chart above shows a duration of around 12 years. As the GOLD bull market continues, these assessments have to be reevaluated again, since predicting the far future is a fool's errand ultimately.

Pitfalls

Keep in mind that this is a dubious speculation that may or may not occur. GOLD might be more bullish than the analysis of the article or more bearish depending on how market sentiment evolves in the future. Indicators do not tell the future with absolute certainty. They are useful to reason about the future, and it is important to balance both bullish and bearish scenarios to avoid bias as best as possible. Lastly, all indicators are prone to failure every now and then. They tend to work well for a while, but eventually, some indicators fail, while others do not at a given time. As more data comes in, the analysis will evolve to incorporate new moves, invalidate a previous hypothesis or gain evidence for a previous idea.

Conclusion

GOLD has shown incredible gains in 2025 outpacing for being a safe asset too. How long it continues to do so remains to be seen. This analysis tries to take a long-term view of the GOLD bull market cycle and highlights the potential for a major inflection point in the 2030s. As the GOLD bull market continues, this analysis will be revisited and updated. The GOLD bull market could end up lasting even longer or shorter, depending on how the macroeconomic environment and market sentiment evolves in the future.