GOLD vs SPX: How high can it go?

Gold’s relative performance versus the S&P 500 (GOLD/SPX) is approaching a technically important inflection point, with price action compressing beneath a clearly defined resistance zone. The ratio has spent considerable time basing from 2022 to 2024, and its current structure increasingly resembles an impulsive setup rather than a corrective rebound. Comparable formations in palladium, platinum and the Hang Seng Index resolved to the upside after similar periods of consolidation, suggesting that GOLD/SPX may be transitioning into a new relative-strength phase. The advance is potentially pressing into the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline, a level that that could determine if a move will reach these levels and then find resistance.

This article will assess whether GOLD/SPX is positioned for a decisive breakout or facing exhaustion at key Fibonacci resistance. By drawing comparisons to earlier resolved patterns and evaluating momentum and structural alignment, the analysis will frame potential scenarios and their implications. It will also address how relative outperformance could translate into elevated nominal gold prices under flat equity conditions.

GOLD vs SPX Technical Analysis

The GOLD/SPX ratio is compressing beneath a well-defined resistance area, with price structure and momentum suggesting a possible transition from consolidation to impulse. While a pullback and consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current time, similar patterns have already been observed in assets like palladium, platinum and the HSI.

Palladium exhibited a comparable pattern with periods of cooling off and consolidation before resolving sharply higher. The moves would often break through resistance and continue to climb before entering another pullback and opportunity for accumulation.

Platinum followed a similar technical blueprint but with significantly stronger upside continuation, underscoring how the same structural pattern can lead to different outcomes. For GOLD/SPX, this should be kept in mind too. While the structural pattern seems to be the same, the actual strength or weakness of a rally can vary.

The Hang Seng Index displayed this configuration in mid-2024, where extended consolidation against relative weakness resolved into a decisive trend move. Palladium and platinum later exhibited similar patterns, reinforcing the notion that GOLD/SPX is also experiencing similar trends.

The current GOLD/SPX advance is now approaching the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline, a zone that often acts as a critical decision point. The Fibonacci retracement takes the breakdown of the previous high as a reference instead of the actual high. While it is not guaranteed that GOLD/SPX will respect the Fibonacci levels, they can be helpful to reason about a potential path forward. Should the Fibonacci levels be respected, then potential short-term tops can lead to the 0.5 level with a 22% increase or also higher to the 0.618 level with nearly a 39% increase.

There are multiple scenarios how these levels could be reached. If the SPX drops and GOLD drops as well, but less, then the GOLD/SPX ratio would reach the levels too, since GOLD is dropping less and thus outperforming the SPX. This is a rather bearish view, and a more bullish view would imply that both SPX and GOLD go up, but GOLD goes up more and thus, outperforms the SPX. Lastly, the SPX could stay approximately flat for a while, while GOLD goes higher.

If the SPX were to remain broadly range-bound, continued relative strength in GOLD/SPX would mathematically imply substantially higher nominal gold prices. However, such projections are mechanical outcomes of ratio analysis and should be treated as illustrative rather than predictive. The scenario implies that a potential top for GOLD could be in the 5300 USD to 6000 USD range, though it is certainly not guaranteed to happen.

Pitfalls

Keep in mind that this is a dubious speculation that may or may not occur. GOLD/SPX might be more bullish than the analysis of the article or more bearish depending on how market sentiment evolves in the future. Indicators do not tell the future with absolute certainty. They are useful to reason about the future, and it is important to balance both bullish and bearish scenarios to avoid bias as best as possible. Lastly, all indicators are prone to failure every now and then. They tend to work well for a while, but eventually, some indicators fail, while others do not at a given time. As more data comes in, the analysis will evolve to incorporate new moves, invalidate a previous hypothesis or gain evidence for a previous idea.

Conclusion

GOLD has shown incredible gains in 2025 outpacing for being a safe asset too. Whether it will continue to do so remains to be seen. Especially now, it is not clear at what point GOLD will break out and how much longer the trend will continue. In the past, GOLD has spent longer times accumulating around the bull market support band. Whether the GOLD/SPX chart will be useful is yet to be seen. While it seems to paint a hopeful picture, the broader market trend has to be taken into account since this analysis is comparing to moving assets.