AAPL vs SPX: How high can it go?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a large-cap technology equity and a core constituent of major market indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The company operates at the intersection of consumer hardware, software platforms, and digital services, with a vertically integrated business model that combines proprietary silicon, operating systems, and devices. This integration supports strong ecosystem lock-in and recurring revenue, particularly as services continue to represent a growing share of total sales.

As a stock, AAPL is often categorized as a mature growth or mega-cap tech stock, characterized by high liquidity, relatively lower volatility compared to smaller technology firms, and substantial institutional ownership. In 2025, AAPL showed strong gains from bottom to top for being a mature growth stock of around 70%. The following analysis will assess AAPL's relative performance against the S&P 500 (SPX) to evaluate a potential path for the future and what kind of opportunities could present themselves.

AAPL vs SPX: Range-bound since 2022

AAPL’s performance relative to the S&P 500 has remained largely range bound since 2022, indicating a period of consolidation rather than sustained outperformance or underperformance with respect to its index. This suggests the stock has been moving in line with the broader market on a relative basis, with occasional rotations leading to outperformance and underperformance.

Within this range, the AAPL/SPX ratio has developed a zig-zag structure, reflecting repeated swings between support and resistance. In the past, these oscillations have indicated whether it was worth holding AAPL against the SPX or not. They have often marked buying and selling opportunities when taking the broader market conditions into account.

From current levels, the relative chart implies downside risk of approximately 14% toward the lower boundary of the established range. This scenario would represent a continuation of the downtrend against the SPX to the range bottom.

If the ratio revisits the lower end of the range and stabilizes, historical moves suggest upside potential of roughly 27% to 32%. This highlights a favorable risk-reward profile for relative strength if support holds and momentum turns higher. The top range can be reached in different ways. It can happen during times of general market weakness. The SPX drops, but AAPL drops less and thus, AAPL/SPX goes higher, because AAPL is outperforming the SPX by dropping less. The preferred scenario is for the SPX to go higher and AAPL along with it. In that case, AAPL/SPX would also reach the range top because AAPL is outperforming the SPX during a bullish period.

AAPL Technical Analysis

Assuming the S&P 500 remains broadly unchanged, a further relative decline would translate into AAPL trading closer to the 220–230 USD area. This level would align with relative weakness rather than a broad market-driven selloff. Depending on how the future unfolds, this could be an attractive level for buying. If the SPX trends lower, then AAPL could drop even more than this analysis theorized, because AAPL is underperforming the SPX. On the other hand, if the SPX trends higher for a sustained period, then AAPL/SPX could still go to the bottom, but AAPL on its USD pair would probably not reach the 220-230 USD area.

RSI and Stochastic RSI readings indicate weakening momentum and suggest that AAPL may continue to cool off in the near short-term. For the time being, AAPL might be heading to lower valuations according to these indicators.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, AAPL shows weakness in the short term based on key indicators and the AAPL/SPX ratio, which could ultimately result in a favourable buying opportunity if the market remains broadly stable. The AAPL/SPX ratio indicates potential downside of approximately 14% from current levels, suggesting that AAPL could decline to the 220–230 USD range if the S&P 500 remains constant. Conversely, if the ratio stabilizes at lower levels, there is upside potential of around 27% to 32%, highlighting a favorable risk-reward profile for relative strength if market conditions remain stable.

Pitfalls

Keep in mind that this is a dubious speculation that may or may not occur. AAPL/SPX might be more bullish than the analysis of the article or more bearish depending on how market sentiment evolves in the future. Indicators do not tell the future with absolute certainty. They are useful to reason about the future, and it is important to balance both bullish and bearish scenarios to avoid bias as best as possible. Lastly, all indicators are prone to failure every now and then. They tend to work well for a while, but eventually, some indicators fail, while others do not at a given time. As more data comes in, the analysis will evolve to incorporate new moves, invalidate a previous hypothesis or gain evidence for a previous idea.

In this analysis, we looked at the AAPL/SPX ratio. While this is helpful to understand how an individual stock performs against the broader market (its index) and to see if the idiosyncratic risk is worth it, the interpretation of AAPL/SPX allows for multiple scenarios to occur. Since the SPX is a moving asset too, it influences the final outcome of AAPL itself and the path it takes.

For an approximately constant SPX, AAPL/SPX will go lower, because AAPL is underperforming the SPX (dropping), and thus, a good buying opportunity could present itself. If AAPL/SPX goes higher, then AAPL is outperforming the SPX by going higher and thus, a good selling opportunity could present itself.

On the other side, if the SPX is not constant, but goes lower, then AAPL/SPX can also go lower, because AAPL is dropping even stronger. If looking for a buying opportunity, then AAPL could very well go lower than this analysis theorized. For example, if the SPX drops 10%, then AAPL would drop 10% and some more to reach the bottom range on AAPL/SPX which translates to AAPL finally dropping the combined values (market weakness and relative weakness against the SPX), for example, 25%. AAPL/SPX can still go higher, even if the SPX trends lower, if AAPL is not dropping as much as the SPX (or actually even going higher).

Lastly, in a bullish scenario, where both the SPX and AAPL trend up, AAPL could go higher than the analysis theorized. The bottom range be reached if AAPL is not trending up as fast as the SPX (or actually even going lower), while the top range is reached with AAPL outperforming the SPX.